This weekend teams will play their final game of the regular season; by Saturday evening, four will have earned the right to play another. Bath have lead from the front all the way and have already secured top spot. Newcastle have already had another last-place finish confirmed with Falcons supporters no doubt only interested in rumours of a Red Bull takeover of the club. Exeter have also had their fate confirmed and have reacted by firing two coaches, moving Rob Baxter back to a more hands-on coaching role and increasing overall spending. Northampton were already out of the running and were only focused on their Champions Cup run which ended in defeat at the final in Cardiff. Harlequins are also out of playoff contention having bizarrely chosen not to go for a bonus point in their final home game. Harlequins could finish as high as 5th, although that seems unlikely, but that would make no difference to their overall outcome. They and Northampton have clinched Champions Cup places for next season whereas Exeter and Newcastle will have to settle for the Challenge Cup. So, all of that means that there are 5 teams with nothing to play for in the final round so half of the league has everything on the line.
The outsiders for the playoff spots are Saracens and Gloucester - both of whom are on 51-points which puts them 2-points behind Bristol in fourth. Both of these sides have also gotten lucky with their opponents. Gloucester are playing a Northampton side who's season practically ended last week and which will be playing without any Lions. The Saints are without: Freeman, Furbank, Smith, Coles, Mitchell Pollock and others for this one. Hutchinson is starting at fly-half despite being a centre with Lumley making his Saints debut in that position. Gloucester should take 5-points from this very easily but you never know what final-day nerves mixed with a lack of playoff experience could do to a team. Saracens are taking on Bath who have made even more changes than Northampton. The table-toppers are resting their first team for the playoffs and, as a result, have picked a team that is basically an academy side. This means that both sides should finish the year on 56-points with massively improved Points-difference tallies. Gloucester's is currently 74 whereas Saracens' is 30 so the Londoners find themselves in the position of being the outsiders' outsider.
As we climb the table, we find the teams under the most pressure: Bristol were on the heels of Bath throughout the season but have stumbled in the closing stages, Sale have come painfully close before and have the squad to go all the way, and Leicester have stalwart players walking away as well as their head coach so need to win now before risking a rebuild.
Let's start with the Bears. Pat Lam's men started the season following on from their great run to end the previous campaign but saw things start to fall apart when AJ MacGinty suffered a serious injury. That's when they looked west for a replacement and found Byrne who had become a forgotten man at Leinster. He stabilised things and kept Bristol on track until the American international returned. However, it seems to be taking a while for him to fully get up to speed so they'll be hoping that one more game can get him fully ready. It seems like Lam has made some tactical tweaks recently and has his side kicking far more which has seemed to alleviate some of their issues with being turned over in their own 22. Bristol's opponents this weekend are Harlequins. The visitors will be without the likes of Smith and Cunningham-South but will still pose a big threat. Benson. who starts in Smith's absence, is making his first start of the season but has already shown that he is one for a big occasion and can handle the pressure. This is a high-pressure game for the Bears but the potential outcomes are quite simple - a win puts them in the top four with bonus points not mattering for that particular objective. In order to climb any higher, there will need to be slip-ups from Sale or Leicester. I'm not sure that's likely but let's take a closer look.
Going into this round in 3rd place are the Sale Sharks. Sanderson's men have been on a good run of form having won five of their last six league games with the only defeat being a loss on the road against Leicester. Sale have one of the toughest tasks of this round of fixtures amongst the teams vying for the playoff spots; they are the only side having to go away from home and are playing an Exeter side which will be incredibly motivated to prove a point given some of their recent results. The home side have also picked a much stronger XV than the likes of Bath and Northampton with all fit first-team players taking part in this one. Exeter are a dangerous team at home but Sale have the experience to get this job done if they can get over any jitters. These are the days where players like George Ford are invaluable to a squad.
The 2nd place team for this week is Leicester. The Tigers are currently on pace for a home semi-final which would be fitting for the retiring Brown, Coles and Youngs. All three are legends of English rugby with the latter two being England centurions and one-club-men for Leicester. A defeat at home to Newcastle would be a terrible way to end the careers of these legends but I don't foresee that being allowed to happen. Coles and Youngs have been given what one would assume will be their final starts as professional players regardless of whether or not they win today given that they are usually brought off the bench at this point in their careers. Newcastle have selected a strong team but it should be no match for the hosts who "simply" have to win in order to secure a home semi-final.
Personally, I expect the table not to change too much with the playoff places remaining the same. These fixtures have fallen in such a way that every team that has something on the line is playing one with no real jeopardy in its sights. All 5 teams with something to play for should win but Sale and Bristol have some potentially very tricky tasks ahead of them.
Round 18 Fixtures (all 3:05pm KO Saturday on TNT Sports/Discovery+)
Bristol Bears vs Harlequins
Gloucester vs Northampton Saints
Saracens vs Bath
Leicester Tigers vs Newcastle Falcons
Exeter Chiefs vs Sale Sharks
Current Table
1.Bath 71pts (244PD) vs Saracens
2.Leicester 56pts (72PD) vs Newcastle
3.Sale 54pts (70PD) vs Exeter
4.Bristol 53pts (29PD) vs Harlequins
5.Gloucester 51pts (74PD) vs Northampton
6.Saracens 51pts (30PD) vs Bath
7.Harlequins 47pts (-14PD) vs Bristol
8.Northampton 43pts (-12PD) vs Gloucester
9.Exeter 27pts (-121PD) vs Sale
10.Newcastle 13pts (-372PD) vs Leicester
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