10th: Newcastle Falcons
The Falcons will likely improve after last season, at least winning one league game. However, they still do not have requisite quality to compete for Champions' cup places. The losses of talent such as Guy Pepper and Phil Brantingham leaves gaps that the Falcons do not have the money to fill. Having an entire preseason under Steve Diamond will surely help, but it is hard to make an argument to say that Newcastle have made strides sufficient to pass, or even catch up to their rivals.
9th: Gloucester
Gloucester had a challenging premiership season in 2023/24. Director of rugby George Skivington will be under immense pressure and need results quickly. The Cherry and Whites have made significant additions in crucial areas of the pitch, signing Welsh duo Tomos Williams and Gareth Anscombe to start at 9 and 10. Gloucester will sure be a much improved side this year but it is hard to move them above any of the 8 that beat them last season. They have assembled a good squad with some great players although I find it difficult to identify whuch position group gives them an edge in match ups against most other teams.
8th: Harlequins
This is the first prediction I agonised over. The group of teams from 4th to 8th have very little separating them and so I wouldn't be surprised to see quins finishing anywhere in that range. However, I have picked them to have a disappointing season so I should probably attempt to explain myself. Let's start with what makes Harlequins great; Marcus Smith and Danny Care are a premier halfback duo and play a brilliant brand of expansive rugby. They also have a strong front row which includes England internationals Joe Marler, Jack Walker and Fin Baxter. So, why have I decided that Quins will have a bad year? The answer is 2 players- Will Collier and Andre Esterhuizen. Collier has been replaced by Wyn Jones but you cannot guarantee the same level of scrummaging ability tha Collier brought to the Stoop. Esterhuizen has certainly not been replaced and his presence will be sorely missed. There will come a time this season when Harlequins must go the direct route and use power rather than speed and skill. Without the big South African, I doubt they will be able to do that as effectively. This is perhaps a small margin but in a league with this much parity, small margins will make all the difference.
7th: Exeter Chiefs
I love almost everything about this Chiefs team, almost everything. Last season was in many ways a pleasant surprise with lots of young players showing that they are ready to compete for the top spots. The blend of youth and experience worked perfectly and Henry Slade was magnificent as a leader. What held the Chiefs back least season was, in my opinion, the 9/10 combination. In tight games, the difference was stark and ultimately cost Exeter when it mattered. Maybe the fly-halves will improve with experience but I doubt they will reach the level of their predecessors like Joe Simmonds. The 10's they are competing against include Handre Pollard, George Ford, Fin Russell and Fin Smith. That is what makes me doubt Exeter's playoff credentials.
6th: Bristol Bears
The Bears had a great finish to last season and only narrowly missed out on the top 4. After an early identity crisis, the Bears rediscovered their true style and thrived. This form will be helped by a fully fit AJ MacGinty who was a big loss for much of the year and will hopefully be fully fit for 2024. A continuation of this attacking style will surely help Bristol attain a more consistent set of results across the year. The reasoning for not including the Bears is the top 4 is much more about the ability of the top 5 teams than it is about Bristol. As I said about Harlequins, I would not be surprised to see them in the playoffs later this season.
5th: Saracens
The questions for Saracens this season are obvious and they all pertain to the loss of Owen Farrell and the Vunipola brothers. Fergus Burke has been brought in from the Crusaders in Super Rugby Pacific to fill the Farrell gap but it is likely a massive downgrade at a position of paramount importance. The reason for optimism for Saracens is that little else has actually changed. Ben Earl, Jamie George, Maro Itoje and many others still remain along with the director of rugby Mark McCall. This means that Saracens still have a squad good enough to compete for major honours. What puts them below the top 4 is the question mark over fly-half. It is possible that Alex Goode could also step into the 10 shirt but that would not be an ideal solution and would be a sign that the Burke experiment is not working.
4th: Sale Sharks
The Sale Sharks are a legitimate contender in 2024/25. They have a fierce pack and top halfbacks along with a good set of backs. This is an experienced, well-coached and tough team that will be able to grind out results consistently enough to reach the top 4. These characteristics will also make them a formidable opponent should they reach knockout rugby. A notable loss for the Sharks this summer was Manu Tuilagi who has joined the likes of Owen Farrell, Courtney Lawes and lewis Ludlam in leavcrossing the channel to play in France. However, Sale have recruited well, signing Fijian star Waisea Nayacalevu and will be expecting progress from exciting youngster Ma'asi-White in the centres. The difference between the Sharks and the other 3 teams is, to me, the lack of game-breaking talent in the back line. Carpenter, Reed and Roebuck are a great back 3 but none are special attacking weapons who can win games from nowhere. However, with the pack and George Ford, these wingers will have plenty of opportunities to finish chances and will do so accurately.
3rd: Leicester Tigers
This is where the Tigers would expect to be every season but fell well short of last time out leading to the departure of Dan Mckellar. He was replaced by Michael Cheika who has a track record that is difficult to match. The Tigers will be expecting to compete for the title with a strong pack full of England internationals, 2 international scrum-halves and a double world cup winner at the 10 position. The back 3 also has multiple internationals like Anthony Watson and Freddie Steward. With this group of players being coached by Michael Cheika, Leicester have to be favourite to win it all.
2nd: Northampton Saints
Last season's champions have a great chance to repeat their success having kept most of their team from last year. The notable departures mostly come in the back row in the form of Courtney Lawes and Lewis Ludlam who have both left for France. The replacemnt are Josh Kemeny from the Melbourne Rebels, who no longer play in Super Rugby Pacific, and exciting youngster Henry Pollock. Tom Pearson will also be expected to take on more responsibility and is capable of doing so. Even so, these losses will be felt and the margin last season were so tight that it could make all the difference. Bath have strengthened and are a better team, are Northampton? I'm not so sure.
1st: Bath
It is difficult to see any weaknesses in this Bath squad. The first and second rows are good enough to compete with anyone. The back row has enough depth to be considered the best in the league along with Saracens. Fin Russell is arguably the best fly-half in the league and is surrounded by other international-calibre players who are capable of winning big titles. Bath showed last season that they have everything required to go all the way this season. They have also improved, adding the likes of Guy Pepper from Newcastle. Everything is set up for Bath to win their first premiership this century so can they do it? I think so.
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